OnyxEngine
Ranks a defined ETF universe by relative strength across several time horizons and selects one qualifying leader from each of two sleeves.
Find where strength is concentrated.Rules-based ETF strategy
Capture strength.
Defend capital.
A clear investment process for people whose savings have a job to do.
OnyxValue combines monthly ETF selection with daily risk monitoring. It follows observable market evidence, not forecasts or headlines.
LONG HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION14.93%annualized growth · Jan 1970–Aug 2026
THE SAME RECONSTRUCTION−23.95%maximum drawdown · losses remained possible
FOLLOW THE DECISIONSMonthly + dailyETF selection + risk monitoring
Historical model figures, not live returns. The long reconstruction uses replacement data and excludes costs and taxes. Explore the evidence and assumptions ↗
WHY ONYXVALUE EXISTS
Return matters.
So does the path required to earn it.
Large drawdowns are not abstract when capital represents decades of work and future independence. OnyxValue was built to pursue meaningful compounding without simply accepting the full force of every equity-market collapse.
WHAT IS ONYXVALUE?
One strategy. Two distinct jobs.
Selection decides where capital works. Shield decides when protection takes priority.
OnyxShield
Checks whether the wider market environment still supports the normal allocation. When defined risk conditions are met, the strategy signals a move toward defensive holdings. Recovery rules define when to return to the normal allocation.
Respond when protection takes priority.The regular monthly review takes around 15 minutes. A daily risk signal can require action between monthly reviews. You place any required trades in your own account; OnyxValue does not execute them for you. Defensive holdings can also lose value.
Month-end signalNext-session implementationDaily Shield check
HISTORICAL EVIDENCE · MODERN PERIOD
$100,000. Two paths.
January 2000–August 2026 · dividend-adjusted daily data
ENDING WEALTH
Growth of $100,000
OnyxValue finished with roughly three times the wealth of SPY Buy & Hold under the stated assumptions.
OnyxValue$2,554,273
after assumed trading costsSPY Buy & Hold$837,301
held throughoutPATH RISK
Maximum drawdown
OnyxValue experienced less than half the maximum drawdown of SPY Buy & Hold in this simulation.
OnyxValue−22.14%
SPY Buy & Hold−55.19%
2000–2026 methodology: Hypothetical historical simulation, not live performance. The OnyxValue result includes an assumed cost of 10 basis points per traded portfolio notional. Taxes, investor-specific expenses and implementation differences are excluded.
A SEPARATE RESEARCH COMPARISON · AUG 2016–AUG 2026
What did protection change?
The same historical ETF engine, with and without its defensive layers. A separate study published on 3 October 2026.
HYPOTHETICAL ENDING WEALTH
Starting with $100,000
OnyxValue with Shield$523,115
complete historical research modelEngine without Shield$484,758
same selection processSPY buy & hold$354,249
equity comparisonLARGEST PEAK-TO-TROUGH LOSS
The drawdown comparison
With Shield−14.61%
Engine alone−25.09%
SPY−33.92%
In this research period, the complete model combined more ending capital with a smaller deepest loss.
Separate historical model: August 2016–August 2026, distributions reinvested, before transaction costs, taxes and slippage. These figures describe the earlier published research model, not a verified performance record of the current live setup. They use a different study and cost basis from the 2000–2026 panel above. Protection can miss gains and does not guarantee smaller losses. Read the original comparison and limitations ↗
HISTORICAL RECONSTRUCTION · WIDER LENS
More than 56 years of changing regimes.
January 1970–August 2026 · a separate gross reconstruction
Growth of $100,000
$263.9MOnyxValue
$40.6MS&P 500 TR
1970–2026 methodology: Gross historical reconstruction using actual ETF data where available and historical index, asset and strategy series for earlier periods. The S&P 500 Total Return comparison is assembled from published annual returns and 2026 year-to-date data. This is not the same dataset or cost treatment as the 2000–2026 analysis; the two comparisons should not be combined.
THE MATHEMATICS OF RECOVERY
Losses and recoveries are not symmetrical.
A deeper loss raises the recovery hurdle.
A mathematical relationship, not a portfolio performance chart.
Recovery gain = loss ÷ (1 − loss). Example: 0.50 ÷ 0.50 = 100%. Assumes no deposits, withdrawals, costs or taxes.
FROM RULES TO RECORD
Evidence belongs in the ledger.
Historical results can show whether an idea deserves attention. They cannot create a live history. That requires rules documented before the outcome, dated signals and a record that cannot be quietly rewritten.
Defined processCore selection and protection rules are established in advance.
Visible decisionsPositioning, signal changes and allocation decisions are documented.
Honest separationHistorical simulations and the developing live record remain distinct.
THE ONYXVALUE JOURNAL
Understand the approach.
Then follow the decisions.
The 15-Minute-a-Month ETF System Behind the Result
Understand the monthly review, daily risk monitoring and what following the strategy requires.
Read the guide ↗Latest published articles
All 13 articles ↗Allocation archive ·
OnyxValue November Allocation: Staying Defensive in Gold and Managed Futures
The allocation update published on November 1, 2026, describing defensive positioning in gold and managed futures and a chart through October against SPY. Preserved as a dated historical record, not a statement of current holdings or a current recommendation.
Dated allocation · Read on Substack Taxes & trading costs ·Can a Systematic ETF Strategy Beat Buy and Hold After Taxes?
A historical comparison of systematic ETF investing and buy and hold under four simplified tax scenarios, including trading costs and a final sale. Explains the assumptions, limitations and relevance of retirement accounts; simulated results are separate from live returns.
Historical tax analysis · Read on Substack Allocation archive ·OnyxShield Activated: Target Allocation 50% Gold, 50% Managed Futures
The OnyxShield activation announcement published on October 26, 2026. Preserved as a dated historical allocation update, not a statement of current holdings or a current recommendation.
Dated allocation · Read on Substack Research & robustness ·A Good Backtest Was Only the Beginning
How sensitivity checks, alternative settings, investment-universe comparisons and reconstructed return paths were used to challenge the historical analysis behind OnyxValue. Development evidence remains separate from actual investment results.
Research & methodology · Read on SubstackBrowse all 13 published articles · Get new articles by email